Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Venezia vs Inter

Wednesday 28 Oct, 17:30
4 · 11 · 85VEN · draw · INT
0–3
Likeliest INT win · 10%
VENEZIA 4%DRAW 11%INTER 85%

Expected goals: VEN 0.80 · INT 3.29

Goals
Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals76%
Over 3.5 goals57%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
VEN or draw15%
Draw or INT96%
VEN or INTno draw89%
Draw no bet
VENstake returned on a draw5%
INT95%
Clean sheets
VEN clean sheet4%
INT clean sheet45%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VEN↓ INT→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
Darker green = likelier. Rows are VEN goals, columns INT. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Venezia and Inter — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2021/22
VEN 00 drawn4 INT
2024/25Venezia0–1Inter2025-01-12
2024/25Inter1–0Venezia2024-11-03
2021/22Inter2–1Venezia2022-01-22
2021/22Venezia0–2Inter2021-11-27

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.