Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Venezia vs Fiorentina

Friday 11 Sept, 19:45
Full time
2–4
chances 1.03 – 3.13 xG
✓ called — we picked FIO; the FIO win we priced at 45%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
25 · 31 · 45VEN · draw · FIO
0–1
Likeliest FIO win · 11%
VENEZIA 25%DRAW 31%FIORENTINA 45%

Expected goals: VEN 1.05 · FIO 1.46

Goals
Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
VEN or draw55%
Draw or FIO76%
VEN or FIOno draw69%
Draw no bet
VENstake returned on a draw35%
FIO65%
Clean sheets
VEN clean sheet24%
FIO clean sheet35%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
VEN↓ FIO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–4 · 1.0%
A FIO win. 6 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Venezia and Fiorentina — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2021/22
VEN 21 drawn1 FIO
2024/25Venezia2–1Fiorentina2025-05-12
2024/25Fiorentina0–0Venezia2024-08-25
2021/22Fiorentina1–0Venezia2022-04-16
2021/22Venezia1–0Fiorentina2021-10-18

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.