Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Udinese vs Lazio

Monday 7 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–2
chances 0.80 – 1.98 xG
✓ called — we picked LAZ; the LAZ win we priced at 35%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
31 · 34 · 35UDI · draw · LAZ
0–1
Likeliest LAZ win · 11%
UDINESE 31%DRAW 34%LAZIO 35%

Expected goals: UDI 1.10 · LAZ 1.17

Goals
Over 1.5 goals65%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals20%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
UDI or draw65%
Draw or LAZ69%
UDI or LAZno draw66%
Draw no bet
UDIstake returned on a draw47%
LAZ53%
Clean sheets
UDI clean sheet31%
LAZ clean sheet33%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
UDI↓ LAZ→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–2 · 7.8%
A LAZ win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Udinese and Lazio — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
UDI 48 drawn12 LAZ
2025/26Lazio3–3Udinese2026-04-27
2025/26Udinese1–1Lazio2025-12-27
2024/25Lazio1–1Udinese2025-03-10
2024/25Udinese2–1Lazio2024-08-24
2023/24Lazio1–2Udinese2024-03-11

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.