Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Udinese vs Como

Saturday 22 Aug, 16:30

Full time

1–1

chances 2.12 – 2.39 xG

✗ missed — we picked COM; the draw we priced at 30%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

20 · 30 · 50UDI · draw · COM

0–1

Likeliest COM win · 12%

UDINESE 20%DRAW 30%COMO 50%

Expected goals: UDI 0.95 · COM 1.55

Goals

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams score51%

Double chance

UDI or draw50%

Draw or COM80%

UDI or COMno draw70%

Draw no bet

UDIstake returned on a draw29%

COM71%

Clean sheets

UDI clean sheet21%

COM clean sheet39%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

UDI↓ COM→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

1–1 · 13.1%

A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Udinese and Como — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25

UDI 11 drawn2 COM

2025/26Udinese0–0Como2026-04-06

2025/26Como1–0Udinese2026-01-03

2024/25Como4–1Udinese2025-01-20

2024/25Udinese1–0Como2024-09-01

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.