Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Udinese vs Cagliari

Saturday 19 Sept, 13:00
Full time
0–1
chances 1.85 – 0.64 xG
✗ missed — we picked UDI; the CAG win we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
41 · 31 · 28UDI · draw · CAG
1–0
Likeliest UDI win · 10%
UDINESE 41%DRAW 31%CAGLIARI 28%

Expected goals: UDI 1.41 · CAG 1.15

Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score54%
Double chance
UDI or draw72%
Draw or CAG59%
UDI or CAGno draw69%
Draw no bet
UDIstake returned on a draw59%
CAG41%
Clean sheets
UDI clean sheet32%
CAG clean sheet25%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
UDI↓ CAG→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–1 · 7.9%
A CAG win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Udinese and Cagliari — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
UDI 105 drawn5 CAG
2025/26Cagliari0–2Udinese2026-05-09
2025/26Udinese1–1Cagliari2025-10-05
2024/25Cagliari1–2Udinese2025-05-03
2024/25Udinese2–0Cagliari2024-10-25
2023/24Udinese1–1Cagliari2024-02-18

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.