Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Torino vs Roma

Monday 14 Sept, 16:30
Full time
0–2
chances 0.71 – 2.33 xG
✓ called — we picked ROM; the ROM win we priced at 63%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
14 · 24 · 63TOR · draw · ROM
0–1
Likeliest ROM win · 11%
TORINO 14%DRAW 24%ROMA 63%

Expected goals: TOR 0.90 · ROM 2.01

Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals55%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
TOR or draw37%
Draw or ROM87%
TOR or ROMno draw77%
Draw no bet
TORstake returned on a draw18%
ROM82%
Clean sheets
TOR clean sheet14%
ROM clean sheet41%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
TOR↓ ROM→012345
0
1
2
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0–2 · 10.9%
A ROM win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Torino and Roma — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
TOR 44 drawn16 ROM
2025/26Torino0–2Roma2026-01-18
2025/26Roma0–1Torino2025-09-14
2024/25Torino0–2Roma2025-05-25
2024/25Roma1–0Torino2024-10-31
2023/24Roma3–2Torino2024-02-26

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.