Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Sassuolo vs Torino

Saturday 29 Aug, 16:30
Full time
2–1
chances 1.55 – 1.50 xG
✓ called — we picked SAS; the SAS win we priced at 43%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
43 · 30 · 28SAS · draw · TOR
1–0
Likeliest SAS win · 10%
SASSUOLO 43%DRAW 30%TORINO 28%

Expected goals: SAS 1.50 · TOR 1.18

Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
SAS or draw73%
Draw or TOR57%
SAS or TORno draw71%
Draw no bet
SASstake returned on a draw61%
TOR39%
Clean sheets
SAS clean sheet31%
TOR clean sheet22%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
SAS↓ TOR→012345
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2–1 · 9.1%
A SAS win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Sassuolo and Torino — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
SAS 49 drawn9 TOR
2025/26Torino2–1Sassuolo2026-05-08
2025/26Sassuolo0–1Torino2025-12-21
2023/24Sassuolo1–1Torino2024-02-10
2023/24Torino2–1Sassuolo2023-11-06
2022/23Sassuolo1–1Torino2023-04-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.