Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Sassuolo vs Lazio

Tuesday 27 Oct, 17:30
28 · 29 · 43SAS · draw · LAZ
0–1
Likeliest LAZ win · 10%
SASSUOLO 28%DRAW 29%LAZIO 43%

Expected goals: SAS 1.19 · LAZ 1.51

Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals50%
Over 3.5 goals29%
Both teams score56%
Double chance
SAS or draw57%
Draw or LAZ72%
SAS or LAZno draw71%
Draw no bet
SASstake returned on a draw39%
LAZ61%
Clean sheets
SAS clean sheet22%
LAZ clean sheet30%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
SAS↓ LAZ→012345
0
1
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are SAS goals, columns LAZ. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Sassuolo and Lazio — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
SAS 63 drawn13 LAZ
2025/26Lazio2–1Sassuolo2026-03-09
2025/26Sassuolo1–0Lazio2025-09-14
2023/24Lazio1–1Sassuolo2024-05-26
2023/24Sassuolo0–2Lazio2023-10-21
2022/23Lazio2–0Sassuolo2023-05-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.