Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Sassuolo vs Juventus

Sunday 13 Sept, 18:45
Full time
3–2
chances 0.96 – 1.18 xG
✗ missed — we picked JUV; the SAS win we priced at 17%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
17 · 27 · 56SAS · draw · JUV
0–1
Likeliest JUV win · 12%
SASSUOLO 17%DRAW 27%JUVENTUS 56%

Expected goals: SAS 0.93 · JUV 1.74

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
SAS or draw44%
Draw or JUV83%
SAS or JUVno draw73%
Draw no bet
SASstake returned on a draw24%
JUV76%
Clean sheets
SAS clean sheet18%
JUV clean sheet40%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
SAS↓ JUV→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
3–2 · 1.4%
A SAS win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Sassuolo and Juventus — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
SAS 44 drawn14 JUV
2025/26Juventus1–1Sassuolo2026-03-21
2025/26Sassuolo0–3Juventus2026-01-06
2023/24Juventus3–0Sassuolo2024-01-16
2023/24Sassuolo4–2Juventus2023-09-23
2022/23Sassuolo1–0Juventus2023-04-16

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.