Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Roma vs Inter

Saturday 19 Sept, 16:00
Full time
2–2
chances 2.31 – 2.59 xG
✗ missed — we picked ROM; the draw we priced at 27%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
37 · 27 · 36ROM · draw · INT
2–1
Likeliest ROM win · 8%
ROMA 37%DRAW 27%INTER 36%

Expected goals: ROM 1.59 · INT 1.56

Goals
Over 1.5 goals82%
Over 2.5 goals60%
Over 3.5 goals38%
Both teams score64%
Double chance
ROM or draw64%
Draw or INT63%
ROM or INTno draw73%
Draw no bet
ROMstake returned on a draw51%
INT49%
Clean sheets
ROM clean sheet21%
INT clean sheet21%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ROM↓ INT→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–2 · 6.7%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Roma and Inter — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
ROM 57 drawn12 INT
2025/26Inter5–2Roma2026-04-05
2025/26Roma0–1Inter2025-10-18
2024/25Inter0–1Roma2025-04-27
2024/25Roma0–1Inter2024-10-20
2023/24Roma2–4Inter2024-02-10

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.