Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Roma vs Fiorentina

Monday 24 Aug, 19:45
Full time
4–0
chances 3.78 – 0.29 xG
✓ called — we picked ROM; the ROM win we priced at 57%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
57 · 27 · 16ROM · draw · FIO
1–0
Likeliest ROM win · 13%
ROMA 57%DRAW 27%FIORENTINA 16%

Expected goals: ROM 1.72 · FIO 0.87

Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
ROM or draw84%
Draw or FIO43%
ROM or FIOno draw73%
Draw no bet
ROMstake returned on a draw78%
FIO22%
Clean sheets
ROM clean sheet42%
FIO clean sheet18%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ROM↓ FIO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
4–0 · 2.2%
A ROM win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Roma and Fiorentina — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
ROM 145 drawn5 FIO
2025/26Roma4–0Fiorentina2026-05-04
2025/26Fiorentina1–2Roma2025-10-05
2024/25Roma1–0Fiorentina2025-05-04
2024/25Fiorentina5–1Roma2024-10-27
2023/24Fiorentina2–2Roma2024-03-10

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.