Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Roma vs Cagliari

Tuesday 27 Oct, 19:45
71 · 20 · 8ROM · draw · CAG
2–0
Likeliest ROM win · 13%
ROMA 71%DRAW 20%CAGLIARI 8%

Expected goals: ROM 2.17 · CAG 0.71

Goals
Over 1.5 goals77%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
ROM or draw92%
Draw or CAG29%
ROM or CAGno draw80%
Draw no bet
ROMstake returned on a draw90%
CAG11%
Clean sheets
ROM clean sheet49%
CAG clean sheet12%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ROM↓ CAG→012345
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2
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are ROM goals, columns CAG. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Roma and Cagliari — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
ROM 144 drawn2 CAG
2025/26Roma2–0Cagliari2026-02-09
2025/26Cagliari1–0Roma2025-12-07
2024/25Roma1–0Cagliari2025-03-16
2024/25Cagliari0–0Roma2024-08-18
2023/24Roma4–0Cagliari2024-02-05

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.