Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Parma vs Monza

Sunday 6 Sept, 14:00

Full time

1–1

chances 0.62 – 2.10 xG

✗ missed — we picked PAS; the draw we priced at 34%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments

42 · 34 · 24PAS · draw · MON

1–0

Likeliest PAS win · 14%

PARMA 42%DRAW 34%MONZA 24%

Expected goals: PAS 1.25 · MON 0.90

Goals

Over 1.5 goals62%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams score45%

Double chance

PAS or draw76%

Draw or MON58%

PAS or MONno draw66%

Draw no bet

PASstake returned on a draw64%

MON36%

Clean sheets

PAS clean sheet41%

MON clean sheet29%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

PAS↓ MON→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

1–1 · 14.2%

A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 14 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Parma and Monza — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 2 meetings since 2024/25

PAS 11 drawn0 MON

2024/25Monza1–1Parma2025-03-15

2024/25Parma2–1Monza2024-12-28

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.