Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Parma vs Genoa

Sunday 20 Sept, 13:00
Full time
2–1
chances 0.86 – 0.86 xG
✗ missed — we picked the draw; the PAS win we priced at 30%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
30 · 36 · 34PAS · draw · GEN
0–0
Likeliest draw · 16%
PARMA 30%DRAW 36%GENOA 34%

Expected goals: PAS 1.00 · GEN 1.06

Goals
Over 1.5 goals60%
Over 2.5 goals34%
Over 3.5 goals17%
Both teams score45%
Double chance
PAS or draw66%
Draw or GEN70%
PAS or GENno draw64%
Draw no bet
PASstake returned on a draw47%
GEN53%
Clean sheets
PAS clean sheet35%
GEN clean sheet37%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
PAS↓ GEN→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–1 · 6.7%
A PAS win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Parma and Genoa — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
PAS 52 drawn5 GEN
2025/26Parma0–0Genoa2026-01-18
2025/26Genoa0–0Parma2025-10-19
2024/25Genoa1–0Parma2025-01-12
2024/25Parma0–1Genoa2024-11-04
2020/21Parma1–2Genoa2021-03-19

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.