Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Parma vs Cagliari

Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45
Full time
0–1
chances 1.03 – 1.26 xG
✗ missed — we picked the draw; the CAG win we priced at 33%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
33 · 35 · 33PAS · draw · CAG
1–1
Likeliest draw · 15%
PARMA 33%DRAW 35%CAGLIARI 33%

Expected goals: PAS 1.09 · CAG 1.09

Goals
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
PAS or draw67%
Draw or CAG67%
PAS or CAGno draw66%
Draw no bet
PASstake returned on a draw50%
CAG50%
Clean sheets
PAS clean sheet34%
CAG clean sheet34%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
PAS↓ CAG→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–1 · 11.2%
A CAG win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 11 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Parma and Cagliari — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
PAS 14 drawn7 CAG
2025/26Parma1–1Cagliari2026-02-27
2025/26Cagliari2–0Parma2025-09-13
2024/25Cagliari2–1Parma2025-02-09
2024/25Parma2–3Cagliari2024-09-30
2020/21Cagliari4–3Parma2021-04-17

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.