Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Napoli vs Como

Sunday 30 Aug, 16:30
Full time
1–2
chances 1.03 – 1.10 xG
✗ missed — we picked NAP; the COM win we priced at 30%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
37 · 33 · 30NAP · draw · COM
1–0
Likeliest NAP win · 11%
NAPOLI 37%DRAW 33%COMO 30%

Expected goals: NAP 1.22 · COM 1.08

Goals
Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
NAP or draw70%
Draw or COM63%
NAP or COMno draw67%
Draw no bet
NAPstake returned on a draw55%
COM45%
Clean sheets
NAP clean sheet34%
COM clean sheet30%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
NAP↓ COM→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–2 · 7.0%
A COM win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Napoli and Como — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
NAP 12 drawn1 COM
2025/26Como0–0Napoli2026-05-02
2025/26Napoli0–0Como2025-11-01
2024/25Como2–1Napoli2025-02-23
2024/25Napoli3–1Como2024-10-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.