Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Napoli vs Bologna

Sunday 13 Sept, 17:00
Full time
1–0
chances 2.25 – 0.17 xG
✓ called — we picked NAP; the NAP win we priced at 49%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
49 · 31 · 20NAP · draw · BOL
1–0
Likeliest NAP win · 13%
NAPOLI 49%DRAW 31%BOLOGNA 20%

Expected goals: NAP 1.49 · BOL 0.92

Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals43%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
NAP or draw80%
Draw or BOL51%
NAP or BOLno draw70%
Draw no bet
NAPstake returned on a draw71%
BOL29%
Clean sheets
NAP clean sheet40%
BOL clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
NAP↓ BOL→012345
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1–0 · 13.0%
A NAP win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Napoli and Bologna — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
NAP 124 drawn6 BOL
2025/26Napoli2–3Bologna2026-05-11
2025/26Bologna2–0Napoli2025-11-09
2024/25Bologna1–1Napoli2025-04-07
2024/25Napoli3–0Bologna2024-08-25
2023/24Napoli0–2Bologna2024-05-11

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.