Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Monza vs Udinese

Saturday 29 Aug, 16:30
Full time
2–3
chances 1.90 – 1.02 xG
✓ called — we picked UDI; the UDI win we priced at 45%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
23 · 32 · 45MON · draw · UDI
0–1
Likeliest UDI win · 13%
MONZA 23%DRAW 32%UDINESE 45%

Expected goals: MON 0.94 · UDI 1.38

Goals
Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score48%
Double chance
MON or draw55%
Draw or UDI77%
MON or UDIno draw68%
Draw no bet
MONstake returned on a draw33%
UDI67%
Clean sheets
MON clean sheet25%
UDI clean sheet39%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
MON↓ UDI→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–3 · 2.3%
A UDI win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monza and Udinese — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
MON 13 drawn2 UDI
2024/25Udinese1–2Monza2025-05-11
2024/25Monza1–2Udinese2024-12-09
2023/24Udinese0–0Monza2024-02-03
2023/24Monza1–1Udinese2023-10-29
2022/23Udinese2–2Monza2023-04-08

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.