Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 6)

Monza vs Sassuolo

Friday 18 Sept, 18:45
Full time
2–1
chances 1.61 – 2.27 xG
✗ missed — we picked SAS; the MON win we priced at 25%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 6 assessments
25 · 28 · 47MON · draw · SAS
1–2
Likeliest SAS win · 10%
MONZA 25%DRAW 28%SASSUOLO 47%

Expected goals: MON 1.21 · SAS 1.69

Goals
Over 1.5 goals78%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Over 3.5 goals33%
Both teams score59%
Double chance
MON or draw53%
Draw or SAS75%
MON or SASno draw72%
Draw no bet
MONstake returned on a draw35%
SAS65%
Clean sheets
MON clean sheet19%
SAS clean sheet30%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
MON↓ SAS→012345
0
1
2
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2–1 · 6.5%
A MON win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Monza and Sassuolo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2022/23
MON 31 drawn0 SAS
2023/24Monza1–0Sassuolo2024-01-28
2023/24Sassuolo0–1Monza2023-10-02
2022/23Sassuolo1–2Monza2023-05-19
2022/23Monza1–1Sassuolo2023-01-22

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.