Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Lecce vs Roma

Monday 31 Aug, 17:30

Full time

0–4

chances 1.20 – 4.14 xG

✓ called — we picked ROM; the ROM win we priced at 63%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments

11 · 26 · 63LEC · draw · ROM

0–1

Likeliest ROM win · 16%

LECCE 11%DRAW 26%ROMA 63%

Expected goals: LEC 0.68 · ROM 1.76

Goals

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams score43%

Double chance

LEC or draw37%

Draw or ROM89%

LEC or ROMno draw74%

Draw no bet

LECstake returned on a draw15%

ROM85%

Clean sheets

LEC clean sheet17%

ROM clean sheet51%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

LEC↓ ROM→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

0–4 · 2.8%

A ROM win. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lecce and Roma — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 10 meetings since 2019/20

LEC 02 drawn8 ROM

2025/26Roma1–0Lecce2026-03-22

2025/26Lecce0–2Roma2026-01-06

2024/25Lecce0–1Roma2025-03-29

2024/25Roma4–1Lecce2024-12-07

2023/24Lecce0–0Roma2024-04-01

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.