Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Lecce vs Monza

Sunday 13 Sept, 14:00

Full time

3–2

chances 1.95 – 3.09 xG

✓ called — we picked LEC; the LEC win we priced at 37%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments

37 · 35 · 29LEC · draw · MON

1–0

Likeliest LEC win · 12%

LECCE 37%DRAW 35%MONZA 29%

Expected goals: LEC 1.15 · MON 1.01

Goals

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams score46%

Double chance

LEC or draw71%

Draw or MON64%

LEC or MONno draw65%

Draw no bet

LECstake returned on a draw56%

MON44%

Clean sheets

LEC clean sheet37%

MON clean sheet32%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

LEC↓ MON→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

3–2 · 1.9%

A LEC win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lecce and Monza — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23

LEC 24 drawn0 MON

2024/25Monza0–0Lecce2025-02-16

2024/25Lecce2–1Monza2024-12-15

2023/24Lecce1–1Monza2024-04-27

2023/24Monza1–1Lecce2023-09-17

2022/23Monza0–1Lecce2023-05-28

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.