Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Lecce vs Monza

Sunday 13 Sept, 13:00
38 · 34 · 27LEC · draw · MON
1–0
Likeliest LEC win · 13%
LECCE 38%DRAW 34%MONZA 27%

Expected goals: LEC 1.19 · MON 0.99

Goals
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
LEC or draw73%
Draw or MON62%
LEC or MONno draw66%
Draw no bet
LECstake returned on a draw58%
MON42%
Clean sheets
LEC clean sheet37%
MON clean sheet31%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LEC↓ MON→012345
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are LEC goals, columns MON. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lecce and Monza — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23
LEC 24 drawn0 MON
2024/25Monza0–0Lecce2025-02-16
2024/25Lecce2–1Monza2024-12-15
2023/24Lecce1–1Monza2024-04-27
2023/24Monza1–1Lecce2023-09-17
2022/23Monza0–1Lecce2023-05-28

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.