Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Lazio vs Genoa

Sunday 30 Aug, 18:45
Full time
1–0
chances 2.11 – 0.74 xG
✓ called — we picked LAZ; the LAZ win we priced at 45%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
45 · 34 · 21LAZ · draw · GEN
1–0
Likeliest LAZ win · 14%
LAZIO 45%DRAW 34%GENOA 21%

Expected goals: LAZ 1.29 · GEN 0.85

Goals
Over 1.5 goals62%
Over 2.5 goals36%
Over 3.5 goals18%
Both teams score45%
Double chance
LAZ or draw79%
Draw or GEN55%
LAZ or GENno draw66%
Draw no bet
LAZstake returned on a draw68%
GEN32%
Clean sheets
LAZ clean sheet43%
GEN clean sheet28%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
LAZ↓ GEN→012345
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1–0 · 14.5%
A LAZ win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 14 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Lazio and Genoa — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
LAZ 143 drawn5 GEN
2025/26Lazio3–2Genoa2026-01-30
2025/26Genoa0–3Lazio2025-09-29
2024/25Genoa0–2Lazio2025-04-23
2024/25Lazio3–0Genoa2024-10-27
2023/24Genoa0–1Lazio2024-04-19

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.