Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Lazio vs AC Milan

Saturday 12 Sept, 16:00

Full time

2–2

chances 2.36 – 2.16 xG

✗ missed — we picked MIL; the draw we priced at 33%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

30 · 33 · 36LAZ · draw · MIL

LAZIO 30%DRAW 33%AC MILAN 36%

Expected goals: LAZ 1.10 · MIL 1.22

Goals

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams score50%

Double chance

LAZ or draw64%

Draw or MIL70%

LAZ or MILno draw67%

Draw no bet

LAZstake returned on a draw46%

MIL55%

Clean sheets

LAZ clean sheet30%

MIL clean sheet33%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.