Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Juventus vs Parma

Saturday 29 Aug, 18:45
Full time
2–0
chances 1.82 – 0.20 xG
✓ called — we picked JUV; the JUV win we priced at 69%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
69 · 24 · 8JUV · draw · PAS
1–0
Likeliest JUV win · 16%
JUVENTUS 69%DRAW 24%PARMA 8%

Expected goals: JUV 1.87 · PAS 0.58

Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score39%
Double chance
JUV or draw92%
Draw or PAS32%
JUV or PASno draw76%
Draw no bet
JUVstake returned on a draw90%
PAS10%
Clean sheets
JUV clean sheet56%
PAS clean sheet16%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
JUV↓ PAS→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–0 · 14.8%
A JUV win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 15 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Juventus and Parma — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 12 meetings since 2014/15
JUV 82 drawn2 PAS
2025/26Parma1–4Juventus2026-02-01
2025/26Juventus2–0Parma2025-08-24
2024/25Parma1–0Juventus2025-04-23
2024/25Juventus2–2Parma2024-10-30
2020/21Juventus3–1Parma2021-04-21

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.