Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Juventus vs Atalanta

Sunday 20 Sept, 16:00
Full time
2–0
chances 1.92 – 0.49 xG
✓ called — we picked JUV; the JUV win we priced at 48%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
48 · 30 · 23JUV · draw · ATA
1–0
Likeliest JUV win · 12%
JUVENTUS 48%DRAW 30%ATALANTA 23%

Expected goals: JUV 1.53 · ATA 1.02

Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
JUV or draw77%
Draw or ATA52%
JUV or ATAno draw70%
Draw no bet
JUVstake returned on a draw68%
ATA32%
Clean sheets
JUV clean sheet36%
ATA clean sheet22%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
JUV↓ ATA→012345
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2–0 · 8.6%
A JUV win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Juventus and Atalanta — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
JUV 912 drawn3 ATA
2025/26Atalanta0–1Juventus2026-04-11
2025/26Juventus1–1Atalanta2025-09-27
2024/25Juventus0–4Atalanta2025-03-09
2024/25Atalanta1–1Juventus2025-01-14
2023/24Juventus2–2Atalanta2024-03-10

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.