Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Juventus vs Milan

Sunday 6 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–1
chances 1.69 – 0.09 xG
✗ missed — we picked JUV; the draw we priced at 31%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
47 · 31 · 22JUV · draw · MIL
1–0
Likeliest JUV win · 12%
JUVENTUS 47%DRAW 31%MILAN 22%

Expected goals: JUV 1.48 · MIL 0.98

Goals
Over 1.5 goals69%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
JUV or draw78%
Draw or MIL53%
JUV or MILno draw69%
Draw no bet
JUVstake returned on a draw68%
MIL32%
Clean sheets
JUV clean sheet38%
MIL clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
JUV↓ MIL→012345
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1–1 · 13.5%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Juventus and Milan — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
JUV 136 drawn5 MIL
2025/26Milan0–0Juventus2026-04-26
2025/26Juventus0–0Milan2025-10-05
2024/25Juventus2–0Milan2025-01-18
2024/25Milan0–0Juventus2024-11-23
2023/24Juventus0–0Milan2024-04-27

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.