Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Inter vs Udinese

Monday 14 Sept, 19:45
Full time
5–3
chances 3.69 – 1.29 xG
✓ called — we picked INT; the INT win we priced at 75%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
75 · 17 · 8INT · draw · UDI
2–0
Likeliest INT win · 11%
INTER 75%DRAW 17%UDINESE 8%

Expected goals: INT 2.56 · UDI 0.83

Goals
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Over 3.5 goals44%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
INT or draw92%
Draw or UDI25%
INT or UDIno draw83%
Draw no bet
INTstake returned on a draw91%
UDI10%
Clean sheets
INT clean sheet44%
UDI clean sheet8%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
INT↓ UDI→012345
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5–3 · 0.4%
A INT win. 8 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly less than 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Inter and Udinese — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
INT 182 drawn4 UDI
2025/26Udinese0–1Inter2026-01-17
2025/26Inter1–2Udinese2025-08-31
2024/25Inter2–1Udinese2025-03-30
2024/25Udinese2–3Inter2024-09-28
2023/24Udinese1–2Inter2024-04-08

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.