Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Inter vs Napoli

Saturday 5 Sept, 17:00
Full time
3–2
chances 3.78 – 2.32 xG
✓ called — we picked INT; the INT win we priced at 53%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
53 · 28 · 19INT · draw · NAP
1–0
Likeliest INT win · 12%
INTER 53%DRAW 28%NAPOLI 19%

Expected goals: INT 1.68 · NAP 0.98

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
INT or draw81%
Draw or NAP47%
INT or NAPno draw72%
Draw no bet
INTstake returned on a draw73%
NAP27%
Clean sheets
INT clean sheet38%
NAP clean sheet19%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
INT↓ NAP→012345
0
1
2
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3–2 · 3.0%
A INT win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Inter and Napoli — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
INT 810 drawn6 NAP
2025/26Inter2–2Napoli2026-01-11
2025/26Napoli3–1Inter2025-10-25
2024/25Napoli1–1Inter2025-03-01
2024/25Inter1–1Napoli2024-11-10
2023/24Inter1–1Napoli2024-03-17

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.