Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Inter vs Monza

Saturday 22 Aug, 17:30

Full time

4–1

chances 1.54 – 1.22 xG

✓ called — we picked INT; the INT win we priced at 88%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

88 · 10 · 3INT · draw · MON

2–0

Likeliest INT win · 13%

INTER 88%DRAW 10%MONZA 3%

Expected goals: INT 3.14 · MON 0.57

Goals

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams score42%

Double chance

INT or draw97%

Draw or MON12%

INT or MONno draw90%

Draw no bet

INTstake returned on a draw97%

MON3%

Clean sheets

INT clean sheet56%

MON clean sheet4%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

INT↓ MON→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

4–1 · 5.9%

A INT win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 6 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Inter and Monza — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2022/23

INT 32 drawn1 MON

2024/25Inter3–2Monza2025-03-08

2024/25Monza1–1Inter2024-09-15

2023/24Monza1–5Inter2024-01-13

2023/24Inter2–0Monza2023-08-19

2022/23Inter0–1Monza2023-04-15

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.