Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Genoa vs Napoli

Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45
Full time
0–2
chances 0.50 – 1.16 xG
✓ called — we picked NAP; the NAP win we priced at 47%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
20 · 33 · 47GEN · draw · NAP
0–1
Likeliest NAP win · 15%
GENOA 20%DRAW 33%NAPOLI 47%

Expected goals: GEN 0.83 · NAP 1.34

Goals
Over 1.5 goals63%
Over 2.5 goals37%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score45%
Double chance
GEN or draw53%
Draw or NAP80%
GEN or NAPno draw67%
Draw no bet
GENstake returned on a draw30%
NAP70%
Clean sheets
GEN clean sheet26%
NAP clean sheet44%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
GEN↓ NAP→012345
0
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0–2 · 9.3%
A NAP win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Genoa and Napoli — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15
GEN 17 drawn14 NAP
2025/26Genoa2–3Napoli2026-02-07
2025/26Napoli2–1Genoa2025-10-05
2024/25Napoli2–2Genoa2025-05-11
2024/25Genoa1–2Napoli2024-12-21
2023/24Napoli1–1Genoa2024-02-17

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.