Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Genoa vs Frosinone

Saturday 12 Sept, 13:00
41 · 32 · 28GEN · draw · FRO
1–0
Likeliest GEN win · 11%
GENOA 41%DRAW 32%FROSINONE 28%

Expected goals: GEN 1.33 · FRO 1.07

Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score51%
Double chance
GEN or draw73%
Draw or FRO60%
GEN or FROno draw68%
Draw no bet
GENstake returned on a draw60%
FRO40%
Clean sheets
GEN clean sheet34%
FRO clean sheet27%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
GEN↓ FRO→012345
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Darker green = likelier. Rows are GEN goals, columns FRO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Genoa and Frosinone — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
GEN 23 drawn1 FRO
2023/24Genoa1–1Frosinone2024-03-30
2023/24Frosinone2–1Genoa2023-11-26
2018/19Genoa0–0Frosinone2019-03-03
2018/19Frosinone1–2Genoa2018-09-30
2015/16Genoa4–0Frosinone2016-04-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.