Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Genoa vs Frosinone

Saturday 12 Sept, 14:00
Full time
1–1
chances 1.84 – 1.75 xG
✗ missed — we picked GEN; the draw we priced at 30%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
40 · 30 · 29GEN · draw · FRO
1–0
Likeliest GEN win · 10%
GENOA 40%DRAW 30%FROSINONE 29%

Expected goals: GEN 1.42 · FRO 1.20

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
GEN or draw71%
Draw or FRO60%
GEN or FROno draw70%
Draw no bet
GENstake returned on a draw58%
FRO42%
Clean sheets
GEN clean sheet30%
FRO clean sheet24%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
GEN↓ FRO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 13.6%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 14 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Genoa and Frosinone — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
GEN 23 drawn1 FRO
2023/24Genoa1–1Frosinone2024-03-30
2023/24Frosinone2–1Genoa2023-11-26
2018/19Genoa0–0Frosinone2019-03-03
2018/19Frosinone1–2Genoa2018-09-30
2015/16Genoa4–0Frosinone2016-04-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.