Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Genoa vs Como

Friday 4 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–4
chances 0.92 – 2.01 xG
✓ called — we picked COM; the COM win we priced at 53%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
18 · 30 · 53GEN · draw · COM
0–1
Likeliest COM win · 14%
GENOA 18%DRAW 30%COMO 53%

Expected goals: GEN 0.84 · COM 1.54

Goals
Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Both teams score47%
Double chance
GEN or draw47%
Draw or COM83%
GEN or COMno draw70%
Draw no bet
GENstake returned on a draw25%
COM75%
Clean sheets
GEN clean sheet22%
COM clean sheet43%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
GEN↓ COM→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–4 · 1.9%
A COM win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Genoa and Como — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
GEN 02 drawn2 COM
2025/26Genoa0–2Como2026-04-26
2025/26Como1–1Genoa2025-09-15
2024/25Como1–0Genoa2025-04-27
2024/25Genoa1–1Como2024-11-07

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.