Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Frosinone vs Venezia

Sunday 6 Sept, 14:00

Full time

3–2

chances 1.79 – 2.44 xG

✓ called — we picked FRO; the FRO win we priced at 51%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments

51 · 29 · 20FRO · draw · VEN

1–0

Likeliest FRO win · 13%

FROSINONE 51%DRAW 29%VENEZIA 20%

Expected goals: FRO 1.57 · VEN 0.93

Goals

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams score50%

Double chance

FRO or draw80%

Draw or VEN49%

FRO or VENno draw71%

Draw no bet

FROstake returned on a draw72%

VEN28%

Clean sheets

FRO clean sheet39%

VEN clean sheet21%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

FRO↓ VEN→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

3–2 · 2.7%

A FRO win. 5 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 3 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Frosinone and Venezia — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.