Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Frosinone vs Juventus

Sunday 23 Aug, 16:30

Full time

0–1

chances 0.37 – 2.62 xG

✓ called — we picked JUV; the JUV win we priced at 65%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

12 · 23 · 65FRO · draw · JUV

0–1

Likeliest JUV win · 12%

FROSINONE 12%DRAW 23%JUVENTUS 65%

Expected goals: FRO 0.82 · JUV 2.02

Goals

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams score50%

Double chance

FRO or draw35%

Draw or JUV88%

FRO or JUVno draw77%

Draw no bet

FROstake returned on a draw15%

JUV85%

Clean sheets

FRO clean sheet14%

JUV clean sheet44%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

FRO↓ JUV→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

0–1 · 11.9%

A JUV win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 12 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Frosinone and Juventus — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16

FRO 01 drawn5 JUV

2023/24Juventus3–2Frosinone2024-02-25

2023/24Frosinone1–2Juventus2023-12-23

2018/19Juventus3–0Frosinone2019-02-15

2018/19Frosinone0–2Juventus2018-09-23

2015/16Frosinone0–2Juventus2016-02-07

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.