Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Frosinone vs Como

Sunday 20 Sept, 13:00

Full time

2–0

chances 2.26 – 2.29 xG

✗ missed — we picked COM; the FRO win we priced at 15%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments

15 · 23 · 62FRO · draw · COM

1–2

Likeliest COM win · 10%

FROSINONE 15%DRAW 23%COMO 62%

Expected goals: FRO 1.03 · COM 2.10

Goals

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams score58%

Double chance

FRO or draw38%

Draw or COM85%

FRO or COMno draw77%

Draw no bet

FROstake returned on a draw20%

COM80%

Clean sheets

FRO clean sheet12%

COM clean sheet36%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

FRO↓ COM→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

2–0 · 1.9%

A FRO win. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 2 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Frosinone and Como — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.