Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Fiorentina vs Torino

Saturday 5 Sept, 14:00
Full time
1–2
chances 1.36 – 0.77 xG
✗ missed — we picked FIO; the TOR win we priced at 27%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
43 · 30 · 27FIO · draw · TOR
1–0
Likeliest FIO win · 10%
FIORENTINA 43%DRAW 30%TORINO 27%

Expected goals: FIO 1.48 · TOR 1.15

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score55%
Double chance
FIO or draw73%
Draw or TOR57%
FIO or TORno draw70%
Draw no bet
FIOstake returned on a draw61%
TOR39%
Clean sheets
FIO clean sheet32%
TOR clean sheet23%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
FIO↓ TOR→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–2 · 6.8%
A TOR win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 7 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Fiorentina and Torino — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
FIO 811 drawn5 TOR
2025/26Fiorentina2–2Torino2026-02-07
2025/26Torino0–0Fiorentina2025-08-31
2024/25Fiorentina1–1Torino2025-01-19
2024/25Torino0–1Fiorentina2024-11-03
2023/24Torino0–0Fiorentina2024-03-02

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.