Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Fiorentina vs Napoli

Sunday 20 Sept, 10:30
Full time
1–1
chances 1.06 – 2.13 xG
✗ missed — we picked NAP; the draw we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
22 · 29 · 49FIO · draw · NAP
0–1
Likeliest NAP win · 12%
FIORENTINA 22%DRAW 29%NAPOLI 49%

Expected goals: FIO 1.00 · NAP 1.57

Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
FIO or draw51%
Draw or NAP79%
FIO or NAPno draw71%
Draw no bet
FIOstake returned on a draw30%
NAP70%
Clean sheets
FIO clean sheet21%
NAP clean sheet37%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
FIO↓ NAP→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–1 · 13.0%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Fiorentina and Napoli — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 24 meetings since 2014/15
FIO 46 drawn14 NAP
2025/26Napoli2–1Fiorentina2026-01-31
2025/26Fiorentina1–3Napoli2025-09-13
2024/25Napoli2–1Fiorentina2025-03-09
2024/25Fiorentina0–3Napoli2025-01-04
2023/24Fiorentina2–2Napoli2024-05-17

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.