Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Fiorentina vs Frosinone

Saturday 29 Aug, 16:30
Full time
0–3
chances 1.82 – 1.95 xG
✗ missed — we picked FIO; the FRO win we priced at 20%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
53 · 28 · 20FIO · draw · FRO
1–0
Likeliest FIO win · 11%
FIORENTINA 53%DRAW 28%FROSINONE 20%

Expected goals: FIO 1.68 · FRO 0.99

Goals
Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
FIO or draw80%
Draw or FRO47%
FIO or FROno draw72%
Draw no bet
FIOstake returned on a draw73%
FRO27%
Clean sheets
FIO clean sheet37%
FRO clean sheet19%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
FIO↓ FRO→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–3 · 0.8%
A FRO win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 1 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Fiorentina and Frosinone — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16
FIO 23 drawn1 FRO
2023/24Fiorentina5–1Frosinone2024-02-11
2023/24Frosinone1–1Fiorentina2023-09-28
2018/19Fiorentina0–1Frosinone2019-04-07
2018/19Frosinone1–1Fiorentina2018-11-09
2015/16Frosinone0–0Fiorentina2016-03-20

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.