Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Como vs Parma

Monday 14 Sept, 16:30
Full time
2–1
chances 3.77 – 1.55 xG
✓ called — we picked COM; the COM win we priced at 70%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
70 · 22 · 8COM · draw · PAS
1–0
Likeliest COM win · 15%
COMO 70%DRAW 22%PARMA 8%

Expected goals: COM 2.00 · PAS 0.63

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score42%
Double chance
COM or draw92%
Draw or PAS30%
COM or PASno draw78%
Draw no bet
COMstake returned on a draw90%
PAS10%
Clean sheets
COM clean sheet53%
PAS clean sheet14%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
COM↓ PAS→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–1 · 9.2%
A COM win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 9 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Como and Parma — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 4 meetings since 2024/25
COM 22 drawn0 PAS
2025/26Como1–0Parma2026-05-17
2025/26Parma0–0Como2025-10-25
2024/25Parma0–1Como2025-05-03
2024/25Como1–1Parma2024-10-19

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.