Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 3)

Cagliari vs Lecce

Monday 7 Sept, 17:30
Full time
1–0
chances 1.92 – 0.45 xG
✓ called — we picked CAG; the CAG win we priced at 47%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 3 assessments
47 · 33 · 21CAG · draw · LEC
1–0
Likeliest CAG win · 14%
CAGLIARI 47%DRAW 33%LECCE 21%

Expected goals: CAG 1.35 · LEC 0.86

Goals
Over 1.5 goals64%
Over 2.5 goals38%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score46%
Double chance
CAG or draw79%
Draw or LEC54%
CAG or LECno draw67%
Draw no bet
CAGstake returned on a draw69%
LEC31%
Clean sheets
CAG clean sheet42%
LEC clean sheet26%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
CAG↓ LEC→012345
0
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1–0 · 14.2%
A CAG win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 14 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Cagliari and Lecce — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 8 meetings since 2019/20
CAG 24 drawn2 LEC
2025/26Cagliari0–2Lecce2026-02-16
2025/26Lecce1–2Cagliari2025-09-19
2024/25Cagliari4–1Lecce2025-01-19
2024/25Lecce1–0Cagliari2024-08-31
2023/24Cagliari1–1Lecce2024-05-05

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.