Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Cagliari vs Inter

Sunday 30 Aug, 18:45
Full time
0–1
chances 0.32 – 3.97 xG
✓ called — we picked INT; the INT win we priced at 67%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 2 assessments
11 · 21 · 67CAG · draw · INT
0–2
Likeliest INT win · 11%
CAGLIARI 11%DRAW 21%INTER 67%

Expected goals: CAG 0.87 · INT 2.19

Goals
Over 1.5 goals80%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Over 3.5 goals37%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
CAG or draw33%
Draw or INT89%
CAG or INTno draw79%
Draw no bet
CAGstake returned on a draw14%
INT86%
Clean sheets
CAG clean sheet11%
INT clean sheet42%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
CAG↓ INT→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–1 · 10.4%
A INT win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Cagliari and Inter — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
CAG 32 drawn15 INT
2025/26Inter3–0Cagliari2026-04-17
2025/26Cagliari0–2Inter2025-09-27
2024/25Inter3–1Cagliari2025-04-12
2024/25Cagliari0–3Inter2024-12-28
2023/24Inter2–2Cagliari2024-04-14

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.