Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 7)

Bologna vs Torino

Saturday 19 Sept, 13:00
Full time
1–1
chances 0.70 – 0.96 xG
✗ missed — we picked BOL; the draw we priced at 29%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 7 assessments
49 · 30 · 21BOL · draw · TOR
1–0
Likeliest BOL win · 12%
BOLOGNA 49%DRAW 30%TORINO 21%

Expected goals: BOL 1.56 · TOR 0.98

Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score52%
Double chance
BOL or draw79%
Draw or TOR51%
BOL or TORno draw71%
Draw no bet
BOLstake returned on a draw70%
TOR30%
Clean sheets
BOL clean sheet38%
TOR clean sheet21%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
BOL↓ TOR→012345
0
1
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1–1 · 13.1%
A draw. 2 goals — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 13 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Bologna and Torino — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
BOL 78 drawn7 TOR
2025/26Torino1–2Bologna2026-02-15
2025/26Bologna0–0Torino2025-10-29
2024/25Bologna3–2Torino2025-02-14
2024/25Torino0–2Bologna2024-12-21
2023/24Torino0–0Bologna2024-05-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.