Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Bologna vs Sassuolo

Sunday 6 Sept, 17:00
Full time
2–2
chances 3.01 – 1.84 xG
✗ missed — we picked BOL; the draw we priced at 30%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
47 · 30 · 24BOL · draw · SAS
1–0
Likeliest BOL win · 11%
BOLOGNA 47%DRAW 30%SASSUOLO 24%

Expected goals: BOL 1.50 · SAS 1.04

Goals
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
BOL or draw77%
Draw or SAS54%
BOL or SASno draw70%
Draw no bet
BOLstake returned on a draw66%
SAS34%
Clean sheets
BOL clean sheet35%
SAS clean sheet22%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
BOL↓ SAS→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
2–2 · 5.1%
A draw. 4 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 5 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Bologna and Sassuolo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2015/16
BOL 96 drawn5 SAS
2025/26Sassuolo0–1Bologna2026-03-15
2025/26Bologna1–1Sassuolo2025-12-28
2023/24Bologna4–2Sassuolo2024-02-03
2023/24Sassuolo1–1Bologna2023-10-28
2022/23Sassuolo1–1Bologna2023-05-08

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.