Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Bologna vs Lazio

Monday 24 Aug, 16:30
Full time
0–1
chances 2.06 – 0.81 xG
✗ missed — we picked BOL; the LAZ win we priced at 28%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff
38 · 33 · 28BOL · draw · LAZ
1–0
Likeliest BOL win · 12%
BOLOGNA 38%DRAW 33%LAZIO 28%

Expected goals: BOL 1.24 · LAZ 1.05

Goals
Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Over 3.5 goals21%
Both teams score49%
Double chance
BOL or draw72%
Draw or LAZ62%
BOL or LAZno draw67%
Draw no bet
BOLstake returned on a draw57%
LAZ43%
Clean sheets
BOL clean sheet35%
LAZ clean sheet29%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
BOL↓ LAZ→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
0–1 · 9.6%
A LAZ win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Bologna and Lazio — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
BOL 57 drawn10 LAZ
2025/26Bologna0–2Lazio2026-03-22
2025/26Lazio1–1Bologna2025-12-07
2024/25Bologna5–0Lazio2025-03-16
2024/25Lazio3–0Bologna2024-11-24
2023/24Lazio1–2Bologna2024-02-18

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.