Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited

Atalanta vs Sassuolo

Sunday 23 Aug, 18:45

Full time

2–1

chances 0.92 – 2.70 xG

✓ called — we picked ATA; the ATA win we priced at 61%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff

61 · 24 · 15ATA · draw · SAS

1–0

Likeliest ATA win · 11%

ATALANTA 61%DRAW 24%SASSUOLO 15%

Expected goals: ATA 1.97 · SAS 0.93

Goals

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams score54%

Double chance

ATA or draw85%

Draw or SAS39%

ATA or SASno draw76%

Draw no bet

ATAstake returned on a draw81%

SAS19%

Clean sheets

ATA clean sheet40%

SAS clean sheet14%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

ATA↓ SAS→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

2–1 · 10.0%

A ATA win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 10 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atalanta and Sassuolo — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2014/15

ATA 135 drawn4 SAS

2025/26Sassuolo2–1Atalanta2026-03-01

2025/26Atalanta0–3Sassuolo2025-11-09

2023/24Atalanta3–0Sassuolo2024-02-17

2023/24Sassuolo0–2Atalanta2023-08-20

2022/23Sassuolo1–0Atalanta2023-02-04

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.