Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · doesn't know lineups or injuries · reassessed after earlier results (rev 2)

Atalanta vs Frosinone

Sunday 25 Oct, 14:00

61 · 23 · 16ATA · draw · FRO

2–1

Likeliest ATA win · 10%

ATALANTA 61%DRAW 23%FROSINONE 16%

Expected goals: ATA 2.11 · FRO 1.05

Goals

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams score59%

Double chance

ATA or draw84%

Draw or FRO39%

ATA or FROno draw77%

Draw no bet

ATAstake returned on a draw79%

FRO21%

Clean sheets

ATA clean sheet35%

FRO clean sheet12%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

ATA↓ FRO→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

Darker green = likelier. Rows are ATA goals, columns FRO. Scores of six or more each way carry the remaining probability.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atalanta and Frosinone — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 6 meetings since 2015/16

ATA 41 drawn1 FRO

2023/24Atalanta5–0Frosinone2024-01-15

2023/24Frosinone2–1Atalanta2023-08-26

2018/19Frosinone0–5Atalanta2019-01-20

2018/19Atalanta4–0Frosinone2018-08-20

2015/16Frosinone0–0Atalanta2016-01-23

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.