Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 5)

Atalanta vs Cagliari

Saturday 12 Sept, 19:45
Full time
1–2
chances 1.48 – 1.31 xG
✗ missed — we picked ATA; the CAG win we priced at 15%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 5 assessments
59 · 26 · 15ATA · draw · CAG
1–0
Likeliest ATA win · 13%
ATALANTA 59%DRAW 26%CAGLIARI 15%

Expected goals: ATA 1.79 · CAG 0.85

Goals
Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Both teams score50%
Double chance
ATA or draw85%
Draw or CAG41%
ATA or CAGno draw74%
Draw no bet
ATAstake returned on a draw80%
CAG20%
Clean sheets
ATA clean sheet43%
CAG clean sheet17%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ATA↓ CAG→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–2 · 4.2%
A CAG win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 4 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atalanta and Cagliari — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 20 meetings since 2014/15
ATA 111 drawn8 CAG
2025/26Cagliari3–2Atalanta2026-04-27
2025/26Atalanta2–1Cagliari2025-12-13
2024/25Atalanta0–0Cagliari2025-02-15
2024/25Cagliari0–1Atalanta2024-12-14
2023/24Cagliari2–1Atalanta2024-04-07

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.