Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Atalanta vs Bologna

Monday 31 Aug, 19:45
Full time
1–0
chances 0.18 – 1.24 xG
✓ called — we picked ATA; the ATA win we priced at 50%.
The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments
50 · 29 · 21ATA · draw · BOL
1–0
Likeliest ATA win · 12%
ATALANTA 50%DRAW 29%BOLOGNA 21%

Expected goals: ATA 1.60 · BOL 1.00

Goals
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score53%
Double chance
ATA or draw79%
Draw or BOL50%
ATA or BOLno draw71%
Draw no bet
ATAstake returned on a draw70%
BOL30%
Clean sheets
ATA clean sheet37%
BOL clean sheet21%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell
ATA↓ BOL→012345
0
1
2
3
4
5
1–0 · 11.6%
A ATA win. 1 goal — under 2.5. Expect it roughly 12 in 100 plays. This is what happened.
What this is built from
The engine weighs
  • Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
  • Opponent strength and venue
  • Recent play, weighted toward now
It cannot see
  • Confirmed lineups
  • Injuries and suspensions
  • Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Atalanta and Bologna — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 22 meetings since 2015/16
ATA 133 drawn6 BOL
2025/26Atalanta0–1Bologna2026-05-17
2025/26Bologna0–2Atalanta2026-01-07
2024/25Atalanta2–0Bologna2025-04-13
2024/25Bologna1–1Atalanta2024-09-28
2023/24Atalanta1–2Bologna2024-03-03

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.