Serie A · engine xGB Current v1 · graded — the claim below was frozen before kickoff, never edited · reassessed after earlier results (rev 4)

Milan vs Lecce

Sunday 20 Sept, 18:45

Full time

3–0

chances 2.48 – 0.22 xG

✓ called — we picked MIL; the MIL win we priced at 68%.

The claim — frozen pre-kickoff after 4 assessments

68 · 22 · 9MIL · draw · LEC

1–0

Likeliest MIL win · 14%

MILAN 68%DRAW 22%LECCE 9%

Expected goals: MIL 2.02 · LEC 0.70

Goals

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams score45%

Double chance

MIL or draw91%

Draw or LEC32%

MIL or LECno draw78%

Draw no bet

MILstake returned on a draw88%

LEC12%

Clean sheets

MIL clean sheet50%

LEC clean sheet14%

Model probabilities, not odds and not advice. Our own leaderboard shows no model here beats the closing market once the bookmaker’s margin is paid.

Every scoreline, priced — tap a cell

MIL↓ LEC→	0	1	2	3	4	5
0
1
2
3
4
5

3–0 · 8.3%

A MIL win. 3 goals — over 2.5. Expect it roughly 8 in 100 plays. This is what happened.

What this is built from

The engine weighs

Chance quality created and conceded, both sides, all season
Opponent strength and venue
Recent play, weighted toward now

It cannot see

Confirmed lineups
Injuries and suspensions
Cup rotation plans

Thin evidence: the engine has seen little recent top-flight data on Milan and Lecce — this assessment leans on conservative defaults more than usual.

Engine internals are proprietary. The complete performance record — including every miss — is public on the record.

Head to head · 10 meetings since 2019/20

MIL 73 drawn0 LEC

2025/26Milan1–0Lecce2026-01-18

2025/26Lecce0–2Milan2025-08-29

2024/25Lecce2–3Milan2025-03-08

2024/25Milan3–0Lecce2024-09-27

2023/24Milan3–0Lecce2024-04-06

Match-level assessment. No scorer projections here: we hold every appearance in this league, and a player model has been measured on it, but its probabilities came out over-confident for the players you would actually read. Recorded before kickoff, revised only until kickoff, graded after full time. Probabilities, never advice.